Toronto FC postseason hopes rest with defense
Soccer Betting Lines
09/07/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It's a story that Toronto FC fans have grown accustomed to. A strong start to the season that looks to be leading to the eventual reward of making the MLS playoffs for the first time, only for the team to have a dismal finish and fail to reach the promised land.
The 2010 version of TFC still has time to give that story a different ending, but a few members of the club must improve significantly for that to come to fruition.
Goalkeeper Stefan Frei has been marvelous in net for TFC, but he is also the most overworked keeper in the MLS. Through weekend play, the side had allowed the most shots on net in the entire league.
The midfielders have at times failed to pull their weight defensively, and defenders Nick Garcia and Adrian Cann have occasionally been caught cheating to the tune of several goals, and points in the standings, surrendered.
This affliction was on full display July 31 in a loss to the Kansas City Wizards, where a misguided back header by Cann allowed KC's Teal Bunbury to break in on net alone and beat Frei for the only goal of the game.
At times, Cann's lack of pace has also been his undoing, with the more fleet- footed opposing forwards taking advantage of the former Canadian international player. Cann's current form kept him from being selected to the national team for one of their upcoming friendlies.
Garcia has been perhaps more frustrating to watch, simply because you do not know what to expect from him on a game-by-game basis.
In some fixtures, he shows off his ability to make sound judgements and displays wonderful crossing ability, while in others he makes poor decisions with the ball.
Considering the fact TFC has allowed 26 goals this season, compared to 22 scored, the offense must also do its part in order for the club to succeed and make up for its deficiencies on the back end.
Designated players Mista and Julian De Guzman must live up to their big-money price tags and produce more than they have. After his move from Spain, Mista has been especially disappointing, considering he was supposed to add another dimension to the TFC offense.
Though Dwayne De Rosario and Chad Barrett have done a decent job in leading the TFC attack, the presence of Maicon Santos allowed more flexibility and his full return from injury would make the club more complete.
If TFC hopes to maintain a playoff spot throughout the rest of the season, they must improve at both ends of the field and perform better on the road, which has been their Achilles' heel since entering the MLS in 2007.
With CONCACAF Champions League games on the horizon and the absence of several top-notch players leaving their team for international duty, TFC's roster depth will be put to the test in the coming weeks. The old adage that offense wins games but defense wins championships should be a philosophy that TFC adheres to during the stretch run.
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Betting the NFL preseason
Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."
When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules.
The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.
The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.
“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”
The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.
“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”
The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.
“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”
Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.
“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."
So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?
“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.
Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.
Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.
Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.
“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.
Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.
The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.
“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.
Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.
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